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USDJPY Returns Back Below 157.00, Edges Towards Session Lows

JPY
  • In a partial reversal of the recent rally, USD/JPY was sold across Asia-Pac hours, and traded heavy through the European open. Despite a couple of attempts back above 157.00, the pair continues to trade with a downward bias and has been edging back towards session lows in recent trade. The JPY remains the second-best performer in G10 on Thursday, just behind the Swiss Franc.
  • Moves have concurred with rates markets fading somewhat after the sharp run higher in US yields since the beginning of the week, with the US10y yield fading around 5bps off highs. Additionally, equities consolidating towards the most recent lows may be bolstering the historical flight to safety thesis, benefitting both the JPY and CHF.
  • That said, USDJPY remains just 0.65% off the Wednesday highs and the moves are deemed to be very much corrective at this juncture.
  • As a reminder, Credit Agricole see equity market moves as suggesting month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be moderate USD selling across the board, with the strongest sell signal in the case of USD/JPY.
  • For bears, a stronger reversal would again refocus attention on 154.39, the 50-day EMA, and 153.45, trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of these two price points would be a bearish development.
  • A resumption of bullish activity would place the focus on 157.99, the May 1 high. Tokyo CPI is expected to rise to 2.2% overnight on Friday and will be the local data highlight.
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