MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Variety Of Core CPI Metrics Watched For Back-to-Back Cut Clues

CANADA
  • Canada CPI for May is released on Tuesday for the second major release since the BoC opted for its first cut of the cycle on Jun 5 in a not fully priced decision.
  • The employment report followed shortly after on Jun 7 with a mostly as expected report although wage growth notably surprised as it tilted back above 5% Y/Y.
  • The BoC minutes showed a consideration of waiting until July to cut but ultimately four months of core CPI easing warranted the move (which we felt justified with some particularly soft trends), albeit whilst advocating a gradual approach to cuts.
  • For May, Bloomberg consensus sees headline CPI easing a tenth to 2.6% Y/Y and the average of median and trim CPI dipping just 0.05pps to 2.7% Y/Y.
  • As usual, we also watch higher frequency metrics (3-mth and 6-mth at 1.6% and 2.4% annualized in April) along with the various more traditional core measures which have been trending softer still over six months (CPIxFE 2.2%, CPIX 0.9%).
  • The breadth of price increases will also be in focus after some sizeable moderation across the basket including some long-awaited improvement in services after months of stickiness.
  • It’s worth noting that the Jun 18 update to CPI weights adds an extra layer of consideration. BMO estimate the changes could make inflation "a touch stickier", but the impact will be minor and didn’t materially change their CPI forecast.
  • Markets have held a range of 15-20bp of cuts for the Jul 24 meeting since the June cut. It’s currently at the low end of this range although could see a further decline if Macklem strongly pushes the gradual nature of cuts later today.
  • There’s still a lot of data to come before the Jul 24 decision though, not least the June labour report (Jul 5), Q2 BOS/CSCE surveys (Jul 15) and June CPI (Jul 16).
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets Bank of Canada Market News
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets Bank of Canada Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.