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UKRAINE: VdL's 'EU Accession Before 2030' Rings Hollow Amid Major Obstacles

UKRAINE
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Speaking in Kyiv on the third anniversary of Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claims that if Ukraine continues its current speed and momentum of reform there is the prospect of EU accession "earlier than 2030". European Council President Antonio Costa claims that Ukraine's accession to the EU 'would be the most important security guarantee for the future of Ukraine'.

  • While von der Leyen's comments may be interpreted as a spur towards sustaining reform momentum in tackling corruption, enhancing democratic institutions, and aligning with EU norms, as well as a morale boost on an important anniversary for Ukraine, the prospect of the country joining the EU within five years is vanishingly slim.
  • The Copenhagen Criteria laid out in the Treaty on European Union require all possible EU members to meet thresholds in the political, economic, and reform arenas. Ukraine, amid an ongoing war, massive reconstruction demands, and huge uncertainty as to its future political and economic development, will find it all-but-impossible to achieve such criteria and go through the accession process within a five-year timespan. 
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Speaking in Kyiv on the third anniversary of Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claims that if Ukraine continues its current speed and momentum of reform there is the prospect of EU accession "earlier than 2030". European Council President Antonio Costa claims that Ukraine's accession to the EU 'would be the most important security guarantee for the future of Ukraine'.

  • While von der Leyen's comments may be interpreted as a spur towards sustaining reform momentum in tackling corruption, enhancing democratic institutions, and aligning with EU norms, as well as a morale boost on an important anniversary for Ukraine, the prospect of the country joining the EU within five years is vanishingly slim.
  • The Copenhagen Criteria laid out in the Treaty on European Union require all possible EU members to meet thresholds in the political, economic, and reform arenas. Ukraine, amid an ongoing war, massive reconstruction demands, and huge uncertainty as to its future political and economic development, will find it all-but-impossible to achieve such criteria and go through the accession process within a five-year timespan.