Venezuela Confirms 28 July Election; Little Time To Get Machado On Ballot

Venezuela's National Electoral Council confirmed that the presidential election will take place on 28 July, the birthday of the country's late socialist leader Hugo Chavez. The date complies with a stipulation in the Barbados Agreement reached between the gov't and opposition in Oct 2023 that required the election to take place in H224. However, it comes very early into the second half of the year, giving precious little time for the opposition to effectively organise itself and select a candidate.

• As JPM notes "this relatively early date sets the rest of the electoral calendar on an expedited schedule that reduces the likelihood that the remaining political and technical guarantees embedded in Barbados can be fully met. Consequently, the path towards a minimally recognized set of electoral conditions is narrowing."
  
• With a 28 July election date, candidates must be chosen by 25 March. Maria Corina Machado, who won the opposition primary in 2023, remains barred from running and the prospect of this situation reversing in such a short timespan seems slim. This will require a rapid process from the opposition to get a credible candidate in place in time.
• All of this serves to raise the likelihood of the roll back of US oil sanctions expiring as scheduled in April.
• Political risk in and around the country will remain elevated in the months ahead with the potential for heightened social unrest during the election campaign and n its aftermath, while tensions with neighbouring Guyana over a disputed hydrocarbon-rich region are still present.