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VIEW: CIBC On CPI

CANADA
  • CIBC see headline CPI slowing from 5.2% to 4.3% Y/Y on a 0.5% M/M NSA increase.
  • They aren’t counting on the outright decline seen in US food prices to show up in Canadian CPI until closer to the summer, although disinflation plus lower gasoline prices than a year ago will be the main drivers behind the move.
  • They expect some moderation in CPI-trim/median core measures on both a Y/Y and 3-month annualized basis with those food price fluctuations helping.
  • OPEC’s decision to cut production means a further Y/Y deceleration in April is less clear cut but assuming only modest further increases in gasoline prices, CIBC still expect the CPI Y/Y to drop below 3% by June.
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