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Volumes Bounce Back, But Implied Close to Cyclical Lows

OPTIONS
  • After several consecutive sessions of incredibly subdued FX volumes, Tuesday saw hedging activity bounce back strongly on the back of the US CPI print, with over $100bln notional crossing via the DTCC - close to double that seen during Monday trade.
  • Trading was led by EUR/USD and USD/JPY hedges (CNY still lags due to new year market closures), with demand for USD upside protection evident throughout. EUR/USD's put/call ratio rose to 2.4 during Tuesday trade - stalling, and partially reversing, the uptick in 1m risk reversals noted off the February low.
  • Despite the uptick in options volumes, global EM and DM implied vols are close to cyclical lows. The only notable exceptions are CHF, JPY and CLP vols (see box and whisker below) as recent spot breakouts feed into implied.
  • Wednesday's expiry pipeline is dominated by $1.0700 - 1.0750 strikes in EUR/USD (E2.4bln), $1bln rolling off at Y151.00-05 in USD/JPY and £643mln at 1.2550 in GBP/USD.

Figure 1: 3m Implied Vols close to cyclical lows across G10 and EM FX

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