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Vote Count Underway, SARB Rate Decision Eyed

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsPolitical Market News
  • The vote count after the South African elections is underway, with the rand trading on the back foot as early results fuel concerns about the probability of the least market-friendly scenarios. The Electoral Commission's (IEC's) CEO Sy Mamabolo said that "evidently we are in for a higher turnout than in 2019," when turnout was 66%. When this is being typed, with 10.84% of votes already counted, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) leads with 42.57%, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) in second place with 26.04%. Should the ANC's final result be significantly below 50%, it might be forced to partner either with its archrivals from the DA, or with radical leftist EFF and/or MK parties. The prospect of the EFF and MK parties entering investors has spooked the market due to their wide-ranging nationalisation plans and populist policy proposals.
  • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. Inflation is yet to return to the target mid-point, which the central bank flagged as a condition for lowering interest rates. The decision will be announced during a press conference at 14:00BST/15:00SAST. Click here to see our preview of the decision.
  • Statistics SA will release April PPI data at 10:30BST/11:30SAST. Separately, the National Treasury will release budget data at 13:00BST/14:00SAST.
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  • The vote count after the South African elections is underway, with the rand trading on the back foot as early results fuel concerns about the probability of the least market-friendly scenarios. The Electoral Commission's (IEC's) CEO Sy Mamabolo said that "evidently we are in for a higher turnout than in 2019," when turnout was 66%. When this is being typed, with 10.84% of votes already counted, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) leads with 42.57%, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) in second place with 26.04%. Should the ANC's final result be significantly below 50%, it might be forced to partner either with its archrivals from the DA, or with radical leftist EFF and/or MK parties. The prospect of the EFF and MK parties entering investors has spooked the market due to their wide-ranging nationalisation plans and populist policy proposals.
  • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. Inflation is yet to return to the target mid-point, which the central bank flagged as a condition for lowering interest rates. The decision will be announced during a press conference at 14:00BST/15:00SAST. Click here to see our preview of the decision.
  • Statistics SA will release April PPI data at 10:30BST/11:30SAST. Separately, the National Treasury will release budget data at 13:00BST/14:00SAST.