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Voters Split On Autumn Snap Election: Poll

CANADA

An opinion poll has found voters split on the prospect of a snap election being held this autumn, with strong opinion polling returns for PM Justin Trudeau's Liberals raising speculation that he may dissolve parliament in an effort to win an outright majority in the House of Commons.

  • 'Do you support or oppose having a federal election this fall?': Support: 44%, Oppose: 49%, Unsure: 7%. Nanos Research / June 2, 2021 / n=1029 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online

Chart 1. Canadian Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 4-poll moving average

Source: Leger, Innovative Research, Abacus Data, EKOS, Mainstreet Research, Angus Reid, Ipsos, MNI

  • Psephologists leantossup.ca project that based on opinion polling at present, the House of Commons would have the following composition in an election held today:
    • Liberals: 169 seats (+12), Conservatives: 111 (-10), Bloc Quebecois (BQ): 30 (-2), New Democratic Party (NDP): 25 (+1), Greens: 2 (-1), Independent: 1
    • This projection would leave the Liberals one seat short of the 170 required for a majority in the 338-member House of Commons.

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