Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Following President Cyril Ramaphosa's confirmation that the general election will take place on 29 May, focus is now set to turn to the prospects for South Africa requiring its first ever coalition gov't in the post-Apartheid era. Opinion polling in late-2023 shows Ramaphosa's big-tent African National Congress (ANC) falling short of the 50% support mark. Given that South Africa operates with a proportional representation system, with a party's nationwide vote share translating roughly into their share of seats in parliament, winning a majority a crucial threshold as the parliament goes on to elect the president.
- Should the ANC fall short of a majority it would require the support of other smaller parties to both re-elect Ramaphosa as president and pass legislation. A number of opposition parties, including the main opposition liberal Democratic Alliance (DA), have banded together to sign the Multi-Party Charter. In this agreement the parties agree not to prop up an ANC-led gov't post election.
- If this charter holds post-election, it would potentially leave the extreme-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) as one of the few options open to the ANC to gain a majority. The ANC has talked down the prospect of working with the EFF, but if this scenario were to transpire it could lead to significant market concerns given the EFF's platform of mass nationalisation and land expropriation.
Source: Ipsos, Social Research Foundation, IRR, BrenthurstFoundation/SABI, Riviona Circle, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.