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Watching For Signs Of Further Moderation In Tomorrow's August Labour Data

CANADA
  • Tomorrow sees labour force survey data for August, with consensus for jobs to have increased 17.5k after July’s surprise -6k.
  • Yesterday’s BoC statement noted that “The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%.”
  • To this end, we focus on the unemployment rate (consensus sees edging another tenth higher to 5.6%) and wage growth (consensus moderates only marginally from 5.0% to 4.7% Y/Y for permanent employees).
  • The Canadian labour market has been showing a greater degree of moderation than that of the US, at least it had until last week’s payrolls report for August when the unemployment rate surprisingly stepped three tenths higher. We watch for any similar August moderation in Canada.

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