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Weak Growth Data Triggers HUF Weakness; NBH Minutes Eyed for Dovish Dissenters

HUF
EURHUF gains have extended despite the more muted price action across global markets compared to Tuesday. This morning’s GDP data is accounting for HUF underperformance as concerns of a weak recovery of the Hungarian economy pile the pressure on the NBH to loosen monetary policy at a faster pace. EURHUF resistance is marked at 390.49, the Jan 30 high, a break of which could expose 394.67, the Aug 3 2023 high.
  • USDHUF is 0.5% in the green at typing, which places the pair at its highest level since early November as the post-CPI rally extends. Amid broader HUF underperformance, PLNHUF stands 0.35% firmer on the day but still some way off last week’s record high of 90.20.
  • CZKHUF had recorded a low of 15.2433 earlier in the session – its lowest since May 2022 – but has since recovered in tandem with the pullback in EURCZK off this morning’s fresh cyclical highs. CZKHUF nevertheless sits ~1.4% weaker compared to last week's pre-CNB levels.
  • The central bank’s January meeting minutes will take focus as monetary policy council members were divided about the size of the 75bp rate cut delivered last month, indicating dissenting votes for the first time since 2016. The minutes will be released at 13:00GMT/14:00CET.
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