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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessWestpac: Does Curve Steepening Have Further To Run?
Westpac note that “with front end valuations volatile, it is also time to assess the Aussie curve in the context of the last tightening cycle. Looking at both the 3-/10-Year bond curve and the 2-/5-Year swap curve, we can see that the first rate hike in 2009 represented a turning point for both curves, especially the 3-/10-Year curve. That mirrors, to some extent, the price action of the fortnight since the RBA began its current cycle. The 2-/5-Year swap curve also steepened slightly, with both steepening impulses peaking after the 3rd hike in the cycle (75bp total). Beyond that, the secular flattening impulse resumed as the RBA moved rates toward, and then into, restrictive territory. We think there are some similarities with the current cycle that suggest a similar evolution is possible in the coming weeks. The recent steepening across the term structure is very similar to the above outcomes. Should the Westpac view of a 40bp hike in June be delivered, then, despite how much has been factored-in, we would expect the debate to shift to them already “getting ahead of the curve.” That will eventually shift the broader narrative back to flattening, as inflation risk gets revised lower, however, the steeper impulse probably has further to run.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.