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Westpac Leading Index Signalling Below Trend Growth In 2023

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Westpac leading indicator fell for the third consecutive month in January but by less than in December, which was revised down. January fell 0.08% after -0.19% to leave the 6-month annualised growth rate at -1.04%. The 6-month series leads by 3 to 9 months and has been negative since August, thus signalling that most of the year, at least, is likely to see below trend growth, which is in line with RBA projections.

  • The deterioration in the 6-month measure since mid-2022 has been driven by a slowing in hours worked, a significant drop in commodity prices in A$, slower US industrial production, sharply narrower yield spread reflecting central bank tightening and weaker labour market expectations. The three other components rose.
Australia Westpac leading index vs real GDP y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Bloomberg

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