What to Watch: Still Unpacking Fed Guidance; Russia/Ukraine Risk

Fed policy in rear view mirror while markets still digesting forward guidance: (1.9% FF end of '22, 2.8% FF end of '23) Eurodollar short end futures firmer after EDZ2-EDH3 down as much as -0.23 Wed).

• Back to Russia/Ukraine headline risk a constant source of market volatility. Markets keyed in on peace talk progress -- or not: stocks gapped lower/Tsys gained recently after headlines that Kremlin called reports of peace talk progress "incorrect". (Wednesday's 'Ukraine and Russia draw up neutrality plan to end war' -- FT story roiled markets, initial risk-on reversed after Ukraine officials denied saying stor "draft .. only represents Russian position", while Ukraine seeks ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian troops.)
• First day of Spring this Sunday, March 20 -- while spike in Covid cases clawing their way back into collective consciousness.
  
• Morning data summary, coming up at 0830ET (prior, est):
  • Initial Jobless Claims (227k, 220k)
  • Continuing Claims (1.494M, 1.480M)
  • Housing Starts (1.638M, 1.700M); MoM (-4.1%, 3.8%)
  • Building Permits (1.895M rev, 1.899M); MoM (0.5% rev, 0.7%)
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (16.0, 14.8)
• Next up at 0915ET: Industrial Production MoM (1.4%, 0.5%); Capacity Utilization (77.6%, 77.9%); Manufacturing (SIC) Production (0.2%, 1.0%)
• US Tsy $45B 4W, $35B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET
• Fed out of blackout tomorrow.