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What to Watch: ADP, Geopolitical Headline Risk Ongoing

MARKET INSIGHT

US FI markets trading steady to mixed on robust volumes (TYM2>560k), curves steepening with short end outperforming, 5s and 7s still inverted vs. 10s: -8.082, -8.573 resp. Bonds off early early overnight highs, near recent low of 148-12 at 148-17.

  • Russia/Ukraine headline risk ongoing, neither side sees breakthrough in latest peace talks. Russia reaching out to other countries: 'No Ceiling For China-Russia Cooperation': Comments from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hitting wires following meeting w/Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Says China willing to work w/ Russia to take China-Russia ties to a higher level in 'new era' under guidance of countries' leaders.
  • Data on tap:
    • Ahead Fri's NFP, focus on ADP Employment (475k, 450k) at 0815ET
    • Followed by GDP, PCE at 0830:
    • GDP Annualized QoQ (7.0%, 7.0%)
    • GDP Price Index (7.1%, 7.1%)
    • Core PCE QoQ (5.0%, 5.0%)
    • Personal Consumption (3.1%, 3.1%)
  • Fed speakers:
    • Richmond Fed Barkin opening remarks at rural eco-event at 0830ET
    • San Fran Fed George at Economic Club, NY, Q&A 1300ET
  • US Tsy auctions $30B 119D bill auction (912796X46) at 1130ET
  • US President Biden: latest on COVID-19 at 1330ET.

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