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Wide Analyst Ranges For CPI on Wed

CANADA
  • Consensus has headline CPI at 0.9% M/M in NSA terms to push the year-ago from 7.7% to 8.4% Y/Y but there is an unusually wide range to analyst views.
  • Scotia: Headline CPI to accelerate towards 8.9% Y/Y, with 1.2% M/M or slightly stronger in SA terms. A variety of drivers include gas adding 0.25pps and food 0.1pp to headline M/M, modest further contributions expected from vehicles and a potentially sizeable boost from re-opening services.
  • CIBC: Headline to peak at 8.5% Y/Y in June on past increases in oil, agricultural and food prices, although recent developments mean should start to see some relief in the months ahead. CPI ex food and energy is seen slowing on the month and roughly stable at an annual rate.
  • RBC: Headline seen at 8.0% Y/Y, driven by food and energy. Roughly half of inflation has been driven by international forces and some of those global price pressures have shown clear signs of easing, whilst higher house prices have been the largest domestic driver and those have shifted into reverse. But inflation pressures unlikely to ease sustainably to the 1-3% target until the economy substantially.
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