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Free AccessYen Outperformance Continues
The yen topped the G10 pile Monday as disappointing economic data released out of China and the U.S. underpinned demand for safer currencies.
- China's economic activity indicators for the month of July missed expectations, while U.S. Empire M'fing Index plunged well below the forecast level.
- A leg lower in USD/JPY coincided with a drop in U.S. Tsy yields, facilitated by weak U.S. data. The pair then tried to recoup losses but finished slightly below neutral levels.
- Come the end of play on Monday, U.S./Japan 10-year yield spread shrank ~4bp, while 2-year yield gap tightened ~3bp.
- Post-Asia equity resilience failed to reduce the yen's allure, even as European & U.S. benchmarks edged higher, while the VIX index trimmed the bulk of its initial gains.
- On the other hand, weaker commodities may have lent some support to the yen, owing to Japan's reliance on commodity imports.
- Spot USD/JPY has shed 17 pips this morning to last change hands at Y133.15. Bears look for losses past Aug 11 low/50-DMA at Y131.74/55 before setting their sights on the Aug 2 low of Y130.41. Bulls would be pleased by a rebound above Aug 8 high of Y135.58.
- Japan's flash Q2 GDP data released Monday came in slightly weaker than expected. Still, the economy finally recovered to its pre-pandemic levels as consumer spending picked up. The yen showed little to no reaction to the data.
- Trade balance and core machine orders will be published tomorrow, before focus turns to Friday's national CPI.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.