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Yen Remains In Free Fall

JPY

The yen continued to tumble on Monday despite another carefully calibrated escalation in official rhetoric on the matter. BoJ Gov Kuroda said that "very rapid" yen moves are problematic for businesses, while FinMin Suzuki reiterated that excessive FX volatility can be negative. But the Japanese currency was unfazed as hawkish Fed expectations kept pushing U.S. Tsy yields higher, with the BoJ sticking to its ultra-loose policy stance.

  • USD/JPY changes hands at Y127.06 at typing, up 7 pips on the day. The rate has already penetrated the Y127.00 figure, which capped gains on Monday. Our technical analyst flags that the trend needle still points north.
  • Further gains past nearby Fibonacci projections at Y127.16 (3.618 proj of the Dec 3 '21 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing) and Y127.71 (3.764 proj of the Dec 3 '21 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing) would open up May 17, 2002 high of Y128.15. Bears look for a pullback towards Apr 12 low of Y124.77.
  • The final reading of Japan's industrial output will be published today, with trade balance coming up Wednesday and national CPI due Friday.
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