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Yield Differentials Key Macro Driver For NZD

NZD

NZD/USD correlations with 2,5 and 10 year yield differentials have strengthened over the past week. Yields stood out as the core driver in NZD/USD in recent trading, with commodity prices also a notable driver. The table below presents levels of correlations between NZD and key macro drivers (note the yield differential reflects swap rates).

  • In a week heavy on Central Bank decisions and key data releases, 2-year yield spreads were the dominant driver of the NZD/USD. The 2-year spread narrowed from ~54bps to ~27bps, as the NZD/USD fell ~2.5% through the week.
  • Weakness in global commodity prices also weighed on the NZD, with the monthly correlation also remaining strong.
  • The recent outperformance in global equities last week, compared to other assets, didn't aid the NZD, although longer term correlations does remain strong.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Correlation With Macro Drivers

Source: Market News International (MNI)/Bloomberg

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