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Zloty On Back Foot, Wage Growth Misses Expectations

PLN

EUR/PLN found support at 4.25 and is ticking away from there, with the zloty coming under some pressure after the release of April economic activity data. At the same time, HUF has depreciated in sympathy with PLN, while CZK has held its earlier gains. When this is being typed, EUR/PLN trades +58 pips at 4.2580, with bulls looking for gains towards the 50-EMA/round figure at 4.2998/4.3000. Meanwhile, a dip through 4.25 would open up 4.2131, the 1.00 projection of the Jan 17 - Apr 9 - Apr 16 price swing.

  • Wages grew 11.3% Y/Y in April, missing the +12.5% consensus forecast, possibly offering a degree reprieve to the NBP. Still, the double-digit pace of wage growth remains relatively robust, underpinning a recovery in domestic demand. On that note, it is worth adding that Family and Social Policy Minister Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bak announced that the government has started working on legislation that would bring the minimum wage to 60% of average wage, in line with a relevant EU directive that must be implemented by November.
  • POLGBs are slightly weaker across the curve, with the 3-5 sector underperforming. The Finance Ministry will tomorrow offer PLN5-10bn worth of government bonds at an auction, which is in line with the amount specified in the monthly supply schedule.
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