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A Calm Start To A Busy Session With CPI and More

US TSYS
  • Treasuries sit modestly richer as they await direction from the June CPI report at 0830ET, with sizeable two-way risk eyed after large moves in the approach to the report.
  • Despite a very small bull steepening on the day, front end yields still sit 3-4bps higher than before Friday’s strong payrolls report, but the belly has clawed back the increase and longer end yields are below as the curve continues to flatten (2s5s and 2s10s both inverted) on lower growth expectations. The Fed’s Beige Book’s later in the session could be interesting on this front.
  • 2YY -2.1bps at 3.029%, 5YY -1.5bps at 3.002%, 10YY -1.7bps at 2.952% and 30YY -1.4bps at 3.147%.
  • TYU2 trades 2+ ticks higher at 118-23+ in the middle of yesterday’s range on soft volumes. It continues a bullish focus with resistance eyed at 119-05 before the bull trigger at 120-16+ (Jul 6 high).
  • Data: MBA mortgage apps (0700ET), CPI & real average earnings (0830ET), Fed Beige Book (1400ET), Monthly budget statement 1400ET.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $19B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810TG3) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $30B 119-day bill CMB auction – 1130ET
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