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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Apart from Wells Fargo and Danske (who are looking for a smaller taper reduction w purchases ending in April), sell-side consensus is that the FOMC will announce a doubling of the taper pace to $30B at the December meeting, concluding in March.
- The median of sell-side median expectations sees the “Dot Plot” showing 2 hike dots in 2022, and 3 more in each of 2023 and 2024.
- There are some outliers there: JPM sees three dots as most likely for 2022; JPM and Credit Suisse see the 2024 dot at 2.625% which is the highest end of dot expectations; the lower end estimate for 2024 is 1.875%, as seen by a few banks.
- As far as house forecasts are concerned, there are few if any remaining holdouts to seeing a 2022 rate liftoff. The earliest core view for liftoff in the notes we've seen belongs to Barclays (March 2022). The latest is TD (2023).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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