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Bank of Canada’s BOS and CSCE Ahead - 1030ET

CANADA
  • The BoC publishes its Business Outlook Survey (BOS) and Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) for Q1 at 1030ET.
  • Whilst somewhat stale compared to latest developments, inflation expectations components and measures of labour shortages/wage pressures will no doubt take centre stage.
  • Scotia thinks the surveys will have been conducted between mid-Feb and early Mar, so the earliest responses would pre-date the war in Ukraine (Feb 24) and the latest before oil prices peaked (Mar 8).
  • The Q4 BOS showed two-thirds of firms expecting inflation above 3% over the next two years, widespread upward pressure on wages and a combined 78% of firms seeing some or significant difficulty from capacity pressures.
  • The Q4 CSCE meanwhile showed rapidly rising 1y and 2y ahead inflation expectations but, importantly, 5y ahead remaining well anchored at 3.5% (high of 4.26% in 2018Q2).
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