MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020

MNI: UK JUL CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -32

Broad-Based IFO Weakness Reinforces Narrative of Recovery Stall

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Busy Session Ahead: Retail Sales, Earnings, Fed Speak Pre-Blackout

US TSYS
Busy Friday session ahead: Tsys trade modestly higher, well off early London trade highs on light volume (TY2<200k) as markets await a heavy slate of economic data at 0830ET that includes Retail Sales MoM (-0.3%, 0.9%); ex-Auto (0.5%, 0.7%), Import/Export Prices; Cap-U/IP at 0915ET, UofMich Sentiment at 1000ET.
  • More Fed speak with policy blackout starting Fri at midnight: Atlanta Fed Bostic on mon-pol, global mkt uncertainty, no text but will field Q&A at 0845ET, StL Fed Bullard eco/mon-pol outlook, no text, Q&A at 0900ET and SF Fed Daly radio interview at 1030ET.
  • A lot of focus on Fed speak after Fed Gov Waller threw cold water on mkt pricing higher chance of 100Bp hike on July 27. Short end Fed Funds and Eurodollar futures gapped higher on Fed Gov Waller comments that he supports another 75-basis point increase at next FOMC, bringing the fed funds rate to 2.25% - 2.5%. StL Fed Bullard also said he favored a 75bp hike at the end of the month.
  • Caveat: Though June CPI may have "anchored" Waller's 75bp hike expectation in a couple weeks, He would "lean toward larger, full-point" hike if "retail sales, housing data are 'materially stronger than expected' Rtrs reported.
  • Stock earnings continue resume this morning: Bank of NY Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citi Group, Blackrock, State Stree and US Bancorp. On Thu: MS earnings miss (1.44 vs. 1.57 est) after JPM (2.76 vs. 2.883 est) -- both citing unprecedented volatility and deteriorating macro conditions.
  • Yield curves mildly flatter after strong short end rebound late Thursday. Currently, 2-Yr yield is down 1.2bps at 3.1201%, 5-Yr is down 2.3bps at 3.0426%, 10-Yr is down 2.4bps at 2.9355%, and 30-Yr is down 1.7bps at 3.0875%.
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