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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Two parliamentary by-elections held on 15 Feb have delivered defeats for the incumbent Conservatives, with the main opposition Labour party overturning sizeable majorities in both. In the seat of Wellingborough, Labour overturned an 18.5k vote majority on a swing of 28.5%, the second-highest swing from Conservative to Labour in any constituency since the Second World War. Labour also comfortably overturned a 11.2k Conservative majority in the southwest English seat of Kingswood. The results have not led to a shift in political betting markets, with Labour already viewed as strong favourites to win a majority in the next general election.
- The past few days have been difficult for both major parties. PM Rishi Sunak's Conservatives have had to deal with the fallout of the economy entering a techical recessionon the day the by-election was held, while Labour's Sir Keir Starmer on the other hand has faced the resurgent issue of antisemitism within his party.
- In terms of implications, the by-elections can also be viewed through the lens of when the general election will take place. Q424 is still seen as the most likely time, with a 71.4% implied probability according to data from Smarkets. Q224 has fallen in the past week, from 15.2% to 11.6%. The prospect of a January 2025 election, the latest possible date, has risen to 9.1%, the highest for this time period since Nov 2023.
Chart 1. Political Betting Markets Implied Probability of Date of Next Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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