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Caixin PMI Falls Back Into Contractionary Territory

CHINA DATA

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for China slipped back into contractionary territory for October. The headline came in at 49.5, versus a 50.8 consensus estimate. We were also well below the September outcome of 50.6. This result joins the official PMI for October back in the contractionary zone (yesterday's print was also 49.5).

  • The trend for the Caixin PMI has largely been sideways through 2023, which is not suggesting a buoyant recovery, at least for smaller/export orientated manufacturers, which the survey tends to represent.
  • The result will be seen as a knock to the recovery and the need for on-going stimulus.
  • In terms of the detail, new export orders shrunk (RTRS), which is line with yesterday's official manufacturing PMI. Sales and delayed shipments were also evident and staffing levels were also trimmed (RTRS), which is also consistent with the official prints from yesterday.
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