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CANADA: Latest On Looming Unprecedented Rail Strikes

CANADA
  • Two of Canada’s largest railroad companies, Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), are set to strike from Thursday if no agreement is reached with a union representing more than 9,000 employees. 
  • The union’s demands have included better wages and benefits, provisions for fatigue management and improved crew scheduling. 
  • The two operators started a phased shutdown of the network last week, including wheat, chemicals and fertilizer: AP Moller-Maersk said Monday it is no longer accepting shipments for Canada that are too heavy for trucks and US operator Union Pacific has warned of “devastating consequences”. 
  • CN said despite negotiations over the weekend, the parties remain “very far apart”, whilst CPKC has offered competitive wage increases and work rules that comply with regulatory requirements for rest. 
  • Canada is the world’s top potash producer and 75% of fertilizer moves by rail (per CEO of Fertilizer Canada). 
  • Roughly 30% of freight rail operations in Canada cross the US-Canada border annually (per the Association of American Railroads) and in 1H24 rail transport accounted for ~14% of total bilateral trade of $382bn between US-Canada (per the US Dept of Transportation).
  • Commuter lines would also be affected including in the Vancouver, Greater Toronto and Montreal areas.
  • Some potential cost estimates – key will be whether strikes last longer than a week with non-linear impacts:  

 

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