Crude Back Positive on Supply Concerns and as China Weighs New Stimulus

Crude front month futures move back positive on the day with supply risks weighed against economic demand concerns as the market looks towards US CPI data due later this week. The risk to future supplies due to Middle East tensions has added to the existing tight market supply to reverse some of the demand driven decline last week.

• Crude market also supported by a Bloomberg report that “China is considering raising its budget deficit for 2023 as the government prepares to unleash a new round of stimulus to help the economy meet the government’s annual growth target.”
• The Brent Dec23-Dec24 spread is rallying towards the high from yesterday at 8.85$/bbl while the prompt spread is also edging higher up towards 1.7$/bbl.
• Technicals show the current Brent resistance is at the 20 day EMA of 89.96$/bbl with support down at 5 Oct low of 83.84$/bbl.
  • Brent DEC 23 up 0.1% at 88.28$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 23 up 0.2% at 86.55$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent down -0.01$/bbl at -3.53$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-JAN 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 1.68$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.09$/bbl at 8.68$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 23-DEC 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 1.79$/bbl
  • WTI DEC 23-JAN 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 1.64$/bbl
  • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.09$/bbl at 9.52$/bbl