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Democrat Senate Candidates Continue To Outperform Biden In Swing States

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Democratic Senate candidates continue to outperform President Biden in key swing states, suggesting that the Democrat brand remains strong despite a lack of enthusiasm for Biden.

  • The polling data, compiled and analysed by Axios, hints that Democrats could retain control of the Senate despite an overwhelmingly unfavourable map. Democrats will need to win at least two Senate races, Ohio and Montana, in states which Trump is likely to win comfortably.
  • Split-ticket voting is increasingly rare in the current partisan political environment. In the last two presidential cycles, there has only been one example of a Senator winning in a state which their presidential candidates lost: Senator Susan Collins (R-ME).
  • According to data from Polymarket, Democrats currently have a 28% implied probability of retaining the Senate.

Figure 1: Average Senate and Presidential Polling Spreads in Select Battleground States

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Democratic Senate candidates continue to outperform President Biden in key swing states, suggesting that the Democrat brand remains strong despite a lack of enthusiasm for Biden.

  • The polling data, compiled and analysed by Axios, hints that Democrats could retain control of the Senate despite an overwhelmingly unfavourable map. Democrats will need to win at least two Senate races, Ohio and Montana, in states which Trump is likely to win comfortably.
  • Split-ticket voting is increasingly rare in the current partisan political environment. In the last two presidential cycles, there has only been one example of a Senator winning in a state which their presidential candidates lost: Senator Susan Collins (R-ME).
  • According to data from Polymarket, Democrats currently have a 28% implied probability of retaining the Senate.

Figure 1: Average Senate and Presidential Polling Spreads in Select Battleground States

Keep reading...Show less