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EGB Supply

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

Spain and France both look to hold auctions today while Germany and Italy have held both syndications and auctions already this week and Greece has also held a syndication. We no longer expect a Belgian syndication this week – looking to next week instead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E58.7bln, up from E22.2bln last week, but with the return of higher redemptions and coupons.

  • Spain will look to kick off February issuance on Thursday with a Bono / Obli / ObliEi auction with E5.5-6.5bln nominals and E250-750mln ObliEi target ranges. On offer will be the 1.45% Apr-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012E51), the 0.10% Apr-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012H41), the on-the-run 10-year 3.25% Apr-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012M85 – for its first reopening since the syndicated launch) and the 2.05% Nov-39 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012M69).
    • The lack of any nominal bonds with a maturity longer than 10-years makes us more confident we will see another Spanish syndication soon. Most likely would be a new 30-year Oct-54 Obli for E5-7bln. We pencil in a possible launch in the W/C 5 February.
  • France will also look to come to the market on Thursday to hold a LT OAT auction with E11.5-13.0bln on offer. We think that this will be the largest target size at a LT OAT auction (at least since the beginning of 2019). On offer will be the on-the-run 10-year 3.50% Nov-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400L834), the off-the-run 16-year 0.50% May-40 OAT (ISIN: FR0013515806), the on-the-run 20-year 2.50% May-43 OAT (ISIN: FR001400CMX2) and the on-the-run 30-year 3.00% May-54 OAT (ISIN: FR001400FTH3).
For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week's supply see the PDF here:

EZ240201.pdf

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