EGB Supply

Spain and France both look to hold auctions today while Germany and Italy have held both syndications and auctions already this week and Greece has also held a syndication. We no longer expect a Belgian syndication this week – looking to next week instead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E58.7bln, up from E22.2bln last week, but with the return of higher redemptions and coupons.

• Spain will look to kick off February issuance on Thursday with a Bono / Obli / ObliEi auction with E5.5-6.5bln nominals and E250-750mln ObliEi target ranges. On offer will be the 1.45% Apr-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012E51), the 0.10% Apr-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012H41), the on-the-run 10-year 3.25% Apr-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012M85 – for its first reopening since the syndicated launch) and the 2.05% Nov-39 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012M69).
  • The lack of any nominal bonds with a maturity longer than 10-years makes us more confident we will see another Spanish syndication soon. Most likely would be a new 30-year Oct-54 Obli for E5-7bln. We pencil in a possible launch in the W/C 5 February.
• France will also look to come to the market on Thursday to hold a LT OAT auction with E11.5-13.0bln on offer. We think that this will be the largest target size at a LT OAT auction (at least since the beginning of 2019). On offer will be the on-the-run 10-year 3.50% Nov-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400L834), the off-the-run 16-year 0.50% May-40 OAT (ISIN: FR0013515806), the on-the-run 20-year 2.50% May-43 OAT (ISIN: FR001400CMX2) and the on-the-run 30-year 3.00% May-54 OAT (ISIN: FR001400FTH3).

EZ240201.pdf