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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

EGB Supply For W/C Sep 27, 2021

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The EU, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany are all due to come to the market next week. We look for gross nominal issuance of E18.0bln next week, up from E10.3bln last week.

  • The EU will kick off issuance on Monday with its inaugural bond auction (rather than syndication). On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the 0% Jul-26 EU NGEU.
  • Belgium will also come to the market Monday, looking to sell E3.0-3.5bln of 10/15/30-year OLOs: the 0% Oct-31 OLO, the 1.45% Jun-37 OLO and the 1.70% Jun-50 OLO.
  • The Netherlands will come to the market Tuesday to launch its new 7-year 0% Jan-29 DSL via conventional auction with E3-5bln on offer.
  • Italy will look to sell MT/LT bonds on Wednesday with details to be announced later today.
  • Germany will look to round off issuance for the month with E4bln of the 10-year 0% Aug-31 Bund on offer.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There is a single redemption this week: E15.2bln of the 4.25% Sep-21 Belgian OLO which originally had a 10-year maturity. There are also E2.0bln of coupon payments (of which E1.3bln are Belgian). With estimated gross nominal issuance of E18.0bln, we look for net nominal issuance of E4.8bln (roughly in line with the E5.0bln seen this week).