Energy Base Effects and Services Drive Inflation Rate Higher

Dutch January HICP inflation printed firmer than expeceted at +3.1% Y/Y (vs +2.4% cons; +1.0% prior) and +0.2% M/M (vs -0.5% cons; +0.2% prior). The national CPI measure came in at +3.2% Y/Y (vs +1.2% prior) and +0.5% M/M (vs 0.0% prior). On the yearly rate, the CPI print is the highest since July 2023.

• The pick up in the Y/Y prints was due to energy base effects being removed. In January 2023, an energy price ceiling was introduced in the Netherlands which held energy inflation in Y/Y terms in negative territory through 2023. Energy CPI inflation was -2.2% Y/Y Jan vs -24.6% Dec.
• This means that the national CPI print excluding energy, was much more stable at +3.5% Y/Y in January (vs +3.4% prior). However, this was also the first uptick for CPI ex energy Y/Y since May 2023.
• This uptick appears to have been driven by services inflation, which increased to +4.8% Y/Y (vs +4.1% prior). However, disinflation continued for industrial goods excluding energy and motor fuels as prices increased +0.3% Y/Y (+1.1% prior) while the food, drinks, and tobacco sector came in at +4.2% Y/Y (vs 5.3% prior).
• The Netherlands represented 5.6% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2023. Information on 2024 Eurozone weighting data will be distributed as part of the Eurozone HICP release at 10am GMT.

MNI, CBS NL