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EUR/USD Holds Between $1.1910/90 Ahead of FOMC

EUR
MNI (London)
  • EUR/USD eased from its Monday Asia high of $1.1967 through yesterday's session, before again meeting support into $1.1910(Mar12 low), touched $1.1911 before it bounced to $1.1937 through the 1600GMT fix, then settled around $1.1930 into the close.
  • Traders aware that the $1.1900 level holds the strikes of expiring EUR puts totalling E3.9bln through the week. There are E1.1bln of EUR puts rolling off today between $1.1885/1.1900.
  • Support seen to $1.1895(61.8% 1.1836-1.1990) ahead of $1.1872(76.4%) and the Mar10 low of $1.1872. 200-dma at $1.1845 of note ahead of the Mar09 YTD low of $1.1836.
  • Resistance $1.1939/40, $1.1967 with stronger interest into $1.1990/1.2000.
  • France CPI 0745GMT, Germany ZEW 1000GMT. US Retail Sales 1230GMT, IP/Mfg and Capacity Utilisation 1315GMT, NAHB Housing Market Index 1400GMT. (note US clocks went forward 1 hour at the weekend)
  • UST yields remain a directional influence, market seen adjusting positions in case of a slightly more hawkish FOMC then widely forecast, in turn buoying the USD, though UST yields have eased off recent highs, 10-yr yield currently back below 1.60%.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD remains below resistance at 1.1990, Mar 11 high. Last week's gains resulted in a break of 1.1952, Feb 25 high suggesting scope for an extension higher near-term. A breach of 1.1990 would clear the way for a recovery and expose the 20-day EMA at 1.2009. From a broader trend perspective, a downtrend remains intact. An extension lower and a breach of 1.1836, Mar 9 low would resume this trend.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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