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Fed Hike Expectations Stabilise After Barkin Boost

STIR FUTURES
  • Hike expectations have been relatively stable overnight after bouncing late Friday as Barkin (’24 voter) told MNI he would prefer not to pre-commit to hiking by 50bps at every meeting.
  • Viewed towards the centre of the dove-hawk spectrum prior to the latest FOMC, he wouldn’t rule out a 75bp hike if inflation expectations were becoming unanchored although doesn’t see that as currently the case.
  • Pricing remains consistent with Powell’s guidance of 50bps on table for next couple meetings -- 54bp for June, 101bp for Jul and 141bp for Sep.
  • No scheduled Fedspeak today before Williams (voter) kicks off a flurry tomorrow with a speech including Q&A.

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