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Fed Minutes Weigh On Crude Despite Higher Gasoline Demand

OIL
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Oil prices fell for a third consecutive day as the FOMC minutes implied that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates. Commodities were lower in general. Crude rose on news earlier that US gasoline demand rose while looking through the rise in oil inventories. The greenback rallied following the minutes with the USD index +0.25%.

  • WTI fell 1.8% to $77.25, the intraday low, and has started today lower again at $77.15. It reached a high of $78.41 following the EIA data. It is now down 5% this month. It remains above support at $76.36, May 15 low. Resistance is at $80.90, May 1 high.
  • Brent is down 1.4% to $81.74/bbl after rising to a high of $82.63 to be down 5.3% in May. It fell to $81.57 earlier which is still above support at $81.05, May 15 low. Initial resistance is at $84.42, 50-day EMA.
  • EIA reported US crude inventories rose 1.83mn barrels last week but they were boosted by the largest adjustment factor since November. Gasoline demand rose 0.44mbd to 9.315mbd and inventories fell 945k barrels. Distillate rose 379k. Refinery utilisation rose 1.3pp to 91.7%.
  • Ahead of the widely anticipated June 1 OPEC+ meeting, Russia’s energy minister said that it will present a plan to compensate for its overproduction which was apparently due to technical reasons. He said in April Russia only produced slightly more than target.
  • Geopolitical issues continue to be watched closely. The US said that Yemen’s Houthis have the capacity to strike shipping as far away as the Mediterranean.
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Oil prices fell for a third consecutive day as the FOMC minutes implied that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates. Commodities were lower in general. Crude rose on news earlier that US gasoline demand rose while looking through the rise in oil inventories. The greenback rallied following the minutes with the USD index +0.25%.

  • WTI fell 1.8% to $77.25, the intraday low, and has started today lower again at $77.15. It reached a high of $78.41 following the EIA data. It is now down 5% this month. It remains above support at $76.36, May 15 low. Resistance is at $80.90, May 1 high.
  • Brent is down 1.4% to $81.74/bbl after rising to a high of $82.63 to be down 5.3% in May. It fell to $81.57 earlier which is still above support at $81.05, May 15 low. Initial resistance is at $84.42, 50-day EMA.
  • EIA reported US crude inventories rose 1.83mn barrels last week but they were boosted by the largest adjustment factor since November. Gasoline demand rose 0.44mbd to 9.315mbd and inventories fell 945k barrels. Distillate rose 379k. Refinery utilisation rose 1.3pp to 91.7%.
  • Ahead of the widely anticipated June 1 OPEC+ meeting, Russia’s energy minister said that it will present a plan to compensate for its overproduction which was apparently due to technical reasons. He said in April Russia only produced slightly more than target.
  • Geopolitical issues continue to be watched closely. The US said that Yemen’s Houthis have the capacity to strike shipping as far away as the Mediterranean.