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Fed Rate Path Holding Most Of Post BoC Lift

STIR
  • FOMC-dated OIS rates sit off yesterday’s post-BOC highs but maintain a 2-3bp increase from pre-meeting levels.
  • The moves haven’t materially changed the Fed skip narrative, with just +8bps priced for next week before a cumulative +21bp to July, but it continued to modestly trim cuts with only 25bp of cuts from that terminal to 5.04% by year-end.
  • Full run in table below.
  • Weekly jobless claims data in 30mins are the main known potential driver for rates on the day, otherwise we’re on headline watch. As noted earlier in the week, US CPI on Tue on day one of the two-day FOMC meeting continues to loom.

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