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Fed Rate Path Snapshot Ahead Of FOMC

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates for the January terminal have lifted slightly since our post-ISM mfg update but remain lower both since the data and on the day, with +9.5bp of cumulative tightening priced.
  • It’s followed by 84bp of cuts to end-2024 for an implied effective rate of 4.58%. Assuming the same current 8bp spread over the target lower bound, that marks a 4.5-4.75% range compared to the 5.0-5.25% median dot in the September dot plot.
  • This 4.58% rate has dropped 20bps since levels just before Chair Powell’s inter-meeting address at the Economic Club of New York on Oct 19.

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