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Fed's Watching Today's Import Price Data

US INFLATION

Today's Import Price index readings for May (0830ET) will be the final major input into PCE inflation for the month. The key ex-petroleum measure is seen cooling to +0.2% M/M (0.7% prior), though rising to 1.3% Y/Y from 1.1% prior.

  • April's M/M figure was the highest since December 2022 and was 0.6pp well above the 0.1% expected, suggesting that the deflationary headwinds from core goods was waning in part alongside the waning marginal benefit of improved global supply chains.
  • The Fed's watching this more closely than we might have expected - Powell on Wednesday, when asked where the Fed still sees inflationary pressures left in the economy, noted that among other things "goods prices have kind of fluctuated. There's been a surprising increase in import prices on goods, which is kind of hard to understand. And, you know, we've taken some signal from that..."

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