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FINANCIALS: Swiss Re Results Preview: 2H Hurricane Rates, Expectations High

FINANCIALS

Swiss Re (SRENVX: A2/A) results are 22-Aug. Results last time were well received though guidance was only maintained. News stories are fearful of the 2H hurricane season so news on reinsurance pricing will be interesting. Spreads have performed well into these results, so expectations are relatively high, we feel.

  • 1Q24 results (16-May) beat on revenues and profit (better combined ratio) and guidance was reiterated, pushing the equity up 4% that day (SXIP +1.6%). 
  • Weaker NatCat performances (e.g. Hurrican Beryl) have featured in the news over the last quarter but few companies have talked down figures. Munich Re results (8-Aug) were solid and spreads tightened. Swiss Re announced a new CFO (after retiring of the previous).
  • Spreads are marginally tighter since last results (€IG insurers +15bp) so have significantly outperformed, including 5bp of relative performance in the last month. The equity has done well, too but less pronounced than credit.
  • Revenue expectations are actually lower than three months ago (3% and 5%) but earnings are ahead c.3% across this year and next.

Results are due pre-market (were 0600 London time last time) with a 1300 conf call at: https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=znUpvfEK

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