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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- GoCs see a sizable bear flattening on the day (2YY +12.5bp with ~7.5bps on remarks, 10YY +4.3bp) after Macklem’s speech and Q&A revealed a decidedly hawkish tone ahead of the Oct 26 decision with its new forecasts.
- The BA curve steepened, with BAZ2 yields +15.5bps and +18bps through 1H23, implying an overnight policy in the middle of 4-4.25% in the Dec’22 and maintaining it through 1H23 with only 20bps of cuts from the peak in Mar’23 by end-2023.
- The main takeaway came from the prepared remarks that the Bank is “not ready to consider moving to a more finely balanced decision-by-decision approach” with more to be done on curbing inflation.
- Q&A helped underscore this. Whilst Macklem acknowledged that the Bank doesn’t want to overcool the economy, the Bank hasn’t seen a turning point in underlying inflation either, adding to comments earlier in the day that front-loading gives the best chance of a soft landing. Further, house prices declining continued to be relatively downplayed with a partly offsetting cushion seen from accumulated household excess savings.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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