MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY362.8 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0983 Thurs; +2.54% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Aussie Unemployment Steady, Job Creation Strong

MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM RAISES SELIC RATE BY 25 BPS TO 10.75%

MNI CBRT WATCH: CBRT To Hold Steady, Look For Further Progress

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, September 18

Australia Aug Unemployment Rate 4.2%

MNI:AUSTRALIA AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +4.2%

MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN JUL +$156.5B

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Fundamentals May See Market Fade USD/KRW Upticks

KRW
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange Bullets

Still, for USD/KRW the market may be happy to fade upticks in the pair. This morning's first 20-days August trade data pointed to a resilient export growth backdrop. The chart below highlights that there remains a reasonable wedge between rolling KRW/USD y/y changes and the improved export backdrop (with the latest print +18.5%y/y for exports, the outcome for the first 20days of the month, used in the chart). If USD/KRW holds at current levels into end August, some of this wedge will be closed though.

  • The BoK is likely to hold rates tomorrow, another marginal won positive.
  • Broader trends are likely to be dictated by how dovish the Fed is through the second half of this year relative to current market pricing.
  • A soft landing scenario should also be supportive of global equity trends, which should see greater offshore inflows return to South Korean stocks. A won positive all else equal.
  • Structural domestic outflows are a won headwind, but such outflows may moderate with a Fed easing cycle.

Fig 1: Won Gains Still Lagging Improved Exports

Keep reading...Show less
191 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Still, for USD/KRW the market may be happy to fade upticks in the pair. This morning's first 20-days August trade data pointed to a resilient export growth backdrop. The chart below highlights that there remains a reasonable wedge between rolling KRW/USD y/y changes and the improved export backdrop (with the latest print +18.5%y/y for exports, the outcome for the first 20days of the month, used in the chart). If USD/KRW holds at current levels into end August, some of this wedge will be closed though.

  • The BoK is likely to hold rates tomorrow, another marginal won positive.
  • Broader trends are likely to be dictated by how dovish the Fed is through the second half of this year relative to current market pricing.
  • A soft landing scenario should also be supportive of global equity trends, which should see greater offshore inflows return to South Korean stocks. A won positive all else equal.
  • Structural domestic outflows are a won headwind, but such outflows may moderate with a Fed easing cycle.

Fig 1: Won Gains Still Lagging Improved Exports

Keep reading...Show less