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Futures Richer Overnight, Firmer Than Exp. Core CPI Data May Weigh

JGBS

JGB futures build on yesterday’s strength with pricing at the close of post-Tokyo trade, +12 compared to settlement levels, after US Tsy yields pushed lower in NY trade assisted by weaker-than-expected Philly Fed, jobless claims and existing home sales. At 147.60, JBM3 sits comfortably in the range of 147.40-147.92, which it has generally traded in since early April, barring a few probes through the lower limit earlier this week.

  • According to MNI's technical analyst, the pullback in JGB futures to Monday’s low of 147.27 appeared corrective. A push through the 20-day EMA at 147.65 would bring attention to 149.53, the Mar 22 high.
  • Yesterday, the BoJ’s Regional Assessments Report maintained an upbeat economic assessment of 7 of 9 regions in the country, saying they were “picking up” or “picking up moderately” since its review three months ago.
  • National CPI, just released, saw March CPI ex-Fresh Food & Energy surprise on the upside with a new cycle high of 3.8% Y/Y versus expectations of 3.6% and the previous print of 3.5%. This will likely apply some pressure at the re-open.
  • Jibun Bank PMIs for April will cross later today.
  • BoJ Rinban operations covering 1- to 25-Year JGBs are also scheduled for today.

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