Gas Summary at European Close: Volatile TTF Struggles For Direction

TTF front month was volatile during the session but has rebounded during European afternoon hours to be trading higher. TTF has struggled to find direction amid a bearish demand outlook and continued concerns that a wider Middle East conflict could hit supply.

• TTF DEC 23 up 1.3% at 48.64€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 1.3% at 50.67€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down slightly to 317.7mcm/d.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 99.2% full on Oct 30 according to GIE data compared to the five-year average of 90.1%.
• Net injections have been falling in the last few days, although remain well above the average rates from the previous five years. Net injections averaged about 1,010GWh/d in the week to Oct 30 compared to the five-year average for the period of just 290GWh/d.
• European natural gas markets are struggling to balance between short-term oversupply and possible supply risks, MET Group chief executive, Gyorgy Vargha, told Argus.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $2.48/MMBtu in December according to BNEF.
• Chinese natural gas consumption is expected to rise by 6% on the year during the fourth quarter of this year to reach 107bcm, with LNG imports forecast to rise by 8% year on year to 19mn tons according to BNEF.
• China’s domestic LNG prices are expected to keep momentum in November, amid rising feedgas costs, higher expectations for imported LNG prices, and rising downstream demand, according to OilChem.
• LNG stockpiles held by major Japanese power utilities decreased by 1.36% to 2.18 million tons on Oct. 29 according to trade ministry data after four consecutive weeks of growth amid exceptionally weak power demand.
• LNG futures traded on exchanges in October hit a year to date high for 2023 at 75,104 lots, according to Platts, citing exchange and broker data.
• Eni expects to be able to export LNG from Egypt in November according to its CEO Claudio Descalzi.
• The Marvel Crane LNG tanker looks to have moved to wait off Newcastle from its originally planned destination of Isle of Grain to avoid storm Ciaran on Thursday morning, ICIS analyst Alex Froley said.
• Chevron will continue efforts to expands natural gas production from Israel, despite the current conflict, as part of its long-term plans for gas development, according to Bloomberg.
• Gas flows from Algeria to Italy at Mazara del Vallo have fallen by 40.7% on the day to average 42.6 mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
• South Korean LNG inventories slightly increased by the end of September to 5.2mn tons, Kogas sales data showed, and are likely to stay above last years levels throughout November and December according to BNEF.
• MNI COMMODITY WEEKLY: Russian Export Cuts Under Question While Unlikely Suspects Bolster Global Supply – Full piece here: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscQOPl-8I6agzdk1-Hw~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6nEXZanptIPjO1OcQ