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Global Supply to Rise 250mtpa by 2030 Despite US Permit Pause: Timera

LNG

Approximately 250mtpa of incremental global supply is due online between now and 2030 according to the central case by Timera Energy including 98mtpa of permitted US supply.

  • The Biden administration last week paused the issuance of new non-FTA export permits potentially delaying planned US LNG export projects without DOE authorisation.
  • The proposed projects at risk from the policy include VG’s Calcasieu Pass 2 & Delta LNG; Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles; Sempra’s Port Arthur phase 2; Commonwealth LNG; Cheniere Corpus Christi & Sabine Pass expansions; and Mexico Pacific’s Saguario Energia LNG.
  • About 20mtpa of supply from the projects impacted have been included in Timera projections due to the levels of binding and non-binding contract cover mitigating the potential impact of the announcement.
  • The policy change is a pause pending a review on the environmental impact and not a ban on future approvals, which may ultimately favour of the projects at risk. A potential reversal is possible at the end of a US election year.

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