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Hawkish Outcomes For U.S. Risk Events Present Greatest Risk To Positioning

USD

The BBDXY hit the lowest level since March earlier today

  • Meanwhile, USD downside protection remains in demand, with the 1-month BBDXY risk reversal moving to the lowest level seen since the COVID outbreak.
  • This means that a hawkish outcome at the upcoming U.S. risk events presents the greatest risk to market positioning.
  • Today’s benchmark payroll revisions are generating greater interest than usual, with the labour market loosening and the Fed more evenly focused on both sides of its dual mandate
  • Click for our full preview of that event.
  • The July FOMC meeting minutes will also cross later today, although more focus is on Fed Chair Powell’s Friday appearance at Jackson Hole.
  • Click for our full preview of those events.

Fig. 1: BBDXY Vs. BBDXY 1-Month 25-Delta Risk Reversal

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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