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Henry Hub Continues Decline Amid Production Recovery and Curtailed LNG

NATGAS

Henry Hub natural gas continues to decline from a high of $3.159/mmbtu on June 11 back to end of May levels driven by a recent recovery in US production and ongoing curtailment to US LNG export terminal feedgas flows.

  • US domestic natural gas production was yesterday up at 102.0bcf/d, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 100.7bcf/d across the whole of June 2024.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas flows are today estimated at 12.9bcf/d, according to Bloomberg. Sabine Pass feedgas remains below normal while Freeport train 2 has restarted following a compressor issue over the weekend.
  • Domestic natural gas demand remains slightly above normal at 74.4bcf/d today according to Bloomberg. The latest NOAA forecast shows above normal temperatures still dominating across most of the US in the coming two weeks. The biggest temperature anomalies are on the east and west coast regions with near normal expected in the Midwest in the 6-10 day period.
  • Export flows to Mexico have today fallen to the lowest since early May 6.25bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 394k on June 28.
    • US Natgas AUG 24 down 1% at 2.58$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JAN 25 down 0.7% at 3.8$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JUL 25 down 0.8% at 3.39$/mmbtu
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