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Hopes of A Fiscal Deal Rising

US TSYS SUMMARY

Improving sentiment on the prospect of a US fiscal spending bill, coupled with a positive shift in global tailwinds (rising optimism on the Covid vaccine rollout and an orderly Brexit deal), has propelled equities higher and underpinned the bear steepening of the UST curve.

  • Equities started the session on the weak footing, but soon gained ground with momentum building through the afternoon.
  • UST yields are up to 3bp higher on the day with the long end of the curve underperforming. The 2s30s spread is 2bp wider. Last yields: 2-year 0.1190%, 5-year 0.3670%, 10-year 0.9113%, 30-year 1.6529%.
  • TYH1 hit a session low of 137-26 in the afternoon before pulling back to 137-30.
  • Today's data slate was relatively uneventful. Industrial production for November was a touch stronger than expected (0.4% M/M vs 03% survey), while the Empire Manufacturing print for December missed (4.9 vs 6.3).
  • Looking ahead, tomorrow sees the release of November retail sales data and the flash PMI prints for December.
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