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JPM Above Consensus For Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • JPMorgan forecast a 300k increase in NFP (cons 260k) with the u/e rate dipping a tenth to 3.6% (cons 3.7%) as another jump in the participation rate is deemed unlikely.
  • They expect trend job growth to slow significantly at some point given the drop in productivity in 1H22, significant recent tightening in financial conditions, and expectations for softening in the economy ahead but recent indicators point to continued strength for now, perhaps most notably very favorable jobless claims filings.
  • AHE seen per consensus at +0.3% M/M whilst the average work week holds at 34.5 hours.
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