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JPM Expects a 75bps Hike This Week

POLAND
  • JPM thinks the NBP and Governor Glapinski will try to back up the claim that the MPC members are all hawks now, raising the policy rate another 75bp to 4.25%.
  • Normally, a central bank can look through a clear supply side shock to inflation as JPM sees in the March CPI print, yet that is true when inflation is somewhere close to the target, not when it’s above 10% and accelerating.
  • JPM therefore tweaks its terminal rate forecast to 6%, 50bps higher than what it had previously.

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