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JPMorgan on Peru Inflation/BCRP Policy

PERU
  • JPMorgan have said their own CPI forecast roughly aligns with the Board’s in the near term, as JPM expect headline CPI to converge to 6.4% by June. The difference is that they are forecasting inflation to converge to 4.2% by December 2023, above target, while the BCRP’s central scenario forecasts 3.0%oya (core 3.2%oya). They admit that subdued activity growth may push inflation below their current forecast, however, on the other hand, adverse climate events could trigger additional pressure on food prices.
  • In terms of the policy rate path ahead, JPMorgan expect the interest rate stable through the end of 2Q23. By then, the pre-conditions required to reduce the real ex-ante rate could be fulfilled, with the BCRP able to trim the nominal policy rate to avoid inflicting additional downside pressure on activity ahead. The policy rate is thus expected to converge to 5.5% by December 2023, and 4.0% by 2Q24.
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